December Housing Market Report 2021
When are the new listings coming to market?
Welcome to December housing market report, 2021. Today I want to start out with the seasonality of the housing market and what that typically looks like. What it really looks like today and how it might look moving forward.
As you can see from this chart here that pattern has been pretty consistent over the years. Each peak since 2015 started in June and tapered down in July.
Fast forward to 2020 and the pattern has been interrupted significantly. Actual closed sales continue to rise in the background while active listings struggle to keep up.
With this new pattern interrupt in play right now through March 2022 appears to be the new high season for homes going on market. Home owners are tuned in to the market activity and understand now that home buyer traffic is still strong. And many are looking to capitalize on that foot traffic.
So here in Bexar County, we’re actually looking at an increase in November this year of 2.3% in inventory levels. And then in San Antonio, 2.1% increase in inventory levels and then Converse coming in with 19.8% increase in new listing levels.
Where are the new listings coming from?
The majority of this inventory is pent up sellers from years past, from 2008 to 2021. Prior to that time frame, it was expected, you would be in your house for about six years.
From 1985 to 2008 the average tenure was six years. After the great financial crisis that tenure average jumped up to 9.2 years from 2008 to 2021. With all the changes in living situations this past year, the average dropped down to eight years. Only time will tell if a new trend as emerged of if it was just a one off. For now it looks like home owners are looking for was to sell and buy back in later.
Realtor.com reports many home owners have indicated plans to sell earlier in the year this year than ever before.
The majority of sellers that responded said they do plan to sell in the next six months starting in this winter. And about 65% have just listed or planned to list this winter, 93% have already taken steps toward listing their home, including work with an agent. And then 36% have reached out to find out what their home value is.
How will interest rates play into this?
Currently interest rates are still at historic lows. But that is steadily changing.
With rates on the rise and the Fed planing on future rate hikes. Many wonder how this will effect the housing market.
If we look back to 2000 in this example rate hikes typically have little to do with depreciation of the housing market. In fact in the example above only one out of three rate hikes coincided with any depreciation of home values. All other rate hikes experienced continued appreciation in the housing market.
Bottom Line
If you are planning to sell a home this winter is not going to be out of the question for finding a motivated buyer to offer you top dollar .
If you are a buyer right now might be high time for finding a home so don’t fall asleep at the wheel. Higher rates are predicted through 2022 and beyond and banking on prices coming down is likely to disappoint.
Would you like to connect?
Give me a call at 210-260-6617
Krishna Perkins, Broker Owner
