When will home prices come down?

“When will home prices come down?” I keep hearing that question over and over. And it makes total sense to ask as fast as prices have come up. Many people are skeptical about the housing market and rightly so. Today’s headlines are full of inflation concerns in many different sectors. Why wouldn’t real estate be the same might many conclude.

Let’s take a look at some data locally and then nationally to see what’s going on. And then we can hear from some industry experts. If you disagree I’d love to hear your point of view.

First we look at San Antonio Texas our home town all the way back to 2016. As you can see from the above chart we have been in a strong seller’s market for some time now. Any housing market with 5-6 months worth of inventory is balanced and anything below that is a strong sellers market.

This all before covid. Home builders and lenders have stayed disciplined since the great financial crisis. Credit standards have stayed high and builders didn’t over build.

Next, fast forward to this year in June. Covid helped burn off any builder inventory and credit standards have increased. The above slide shows weak seller traffic. Not many sellers are electing to sell. People are traveling and the country is opening up. But Sellers remain in place despite the strong market and opportunity to profit.

Now let’s look at buyer traffic. In nearly every single state you have ‘very strong’ buyer traffic. Multiple offers are common place and most homes that reach the market are sold.

Further we can illustrate the inventory issue above . We now have 2.4 months on avg nationwide worth of inventory. Than number has been even lower here in San Antonio. It’s been at 6 weeks for some time now. Let’s see how some industry experts are weighing in below.

Sounds all to familiar of a story here in Texas. The next statement really starts to clue us into what may be in store for the rest of the year and possibly beyond.

Goldman Sachs weighs in next and it’s a strong opinion.

Are you getting the idea?

With all those predictions in mind as a buyer you might be thinking it’s hopeless but let me leave you with a word of advice after this next quote.

Yes, the housing market is not much fun for many buyers right now. And seller’s are reaping some nice benefits currently. But, like anything else persistence and time win out. Regardless of the horror stories buyers are still closing on homes and achieving their dream of ownership, rates are still at all time low’s and rent rates are still surging.

Right now the most successful home buyer’s are the ones with detailed plans. There’s no size fits all approach here but there are options.

Feel free to call anytime for a free consultation to discuss your needs.

(210) 934-7227

Krishna Perkins